Abstract:In contrast to standard theory, recent empirical evidence shows that currency depreciations are not always expansionary. I show that a bank lending channel of exchange rates can explain this disconnect. I provide causal evidence on the importance of this channel using a large and unanticipated currency appreciation shock from Switzerland. I construct a novel dataset on foreign currency exposure of Swiss banks and bank-firm relationships, and show that the currency appreciation shock enabled banks with net foreign currency liability exposure to increase lending, allowing firms to increase investment. The bank lending channel thus partially offsets the negative effect of currency appreciation on exports, explaining the weak response of aggregate output to the shock. I also construct a new historical database on banks’ foreign currency exposure for a sample of 43 countries and provide evidence on the general importance of this channel across historical global currency depreciations.
Inflation and Disintermediation (with Matthew Baron)
Abstract: In a country-level panel from 1870 to 2016, large increases in inflation are associated with lower future bank credit-to-GDP, even in the absence of monetary tightening. The lending contraction is primarily driven by banks with balance sheets most negatively exposed to inflation increases. To better understand how inflation shocks transmit to the macroeconomy through a banking channel, we study an unexpected inflation increase in the U.S. in early-1977. Our identification strategy exploits differences in reserve requirements across U.S. states for Fed nonmember banks, leading banks to be differentially exposed to unexpected inflation increases. More exposed banks reduce lending, which in turn reduces new mortgages, construction employment, and credit to bank-dependent firms. Our results suggest that an important consequence of inflation is its distortion of the banking sector.
Limits of Stress-test based Bank Regulation: Cues from the Covid-19 Crisis (with Tirupam Goel)
Abstract: Stress-tests can enhance welfare by providing complementary information about banks’ risk exposures to regulators, which allows them to use capital surcharges to better align baseline regulation to individual banks. This paper provides suggestive evidence of inaccuracies in stress-testing using the Covid-19 crisis, and develops a model to study the attendant welfare consequences. We show that inaccuracies reduce welfare by causing excessive (insufficient) regulation of a less (more) risky bank, and by hampering banks’ ex-ante incentives. Accuracy and the optimal surcharge have a non-linear relationship, and exhibit a phase shift — for accuracy below a threshold, the optimal surcharge is zero.
The Determinants of China’s International Portfolio Equity Allocations (with Grace Weishi Gu and Eswar Prasad), IMF Economic Review, May 2020 (previously circulated as China’s Impact on Global Financial Markets, NBER Working paper No. 26311)
Abstract: We analyze shifts in the structure of China’s capital outflows over the past decade. The composition of gross outflows has shifted from accumulation of foreign exchange reserves by the central bank to nonofficial outflows. Unlocking the enormous pool of domestic savings could have a significant impact on global financial markets as China continues to open up its capital account and as domestic investors look abroad for returns and diversification. We analyze in detail the allocation patterns of Chinese institutional investors (IIs), which constitute the main channel for foreign portfolio investment outflows. We find that, relative to benchmarks based on market capitalization, Chinese IIs underweight developed countries and high-tech sectors in their international portfolio allocations but overinvest in high-tech stocks in developed countries. To further examine Chinese IIs’ joint decisions on destination country-sector pairs, we construct continuous measures of revealed relative comparative advantage and disadvantage in a sector for a country based on trade patterns. We find that, in their foreign portfolio allocations, Chinese IIs overweight sectors in which China has a comparative disadvantage. Moreover, Chinese IIs concentrate such investments in countries that have higher relative comparative advantage in those sectors. Diversification and information advantages related to foreign imports to China seem to influence patterns of foreign portfolio allocations, while yield-seeking and learning motives do not.
- Blogs: VoxChina
Commodity Prices and Bank Lending (with Rupa Duttagupta and Andrea Presbitero), Economic Inquiry, August 2019
Abstract: We analyze the transmission of changes in commodity prices to bank lending in a large sample of developing countries. A bank-level analysis shows that a fall in commodity net export prices is associated with a reduction of bank lending, particularly for commodity exporters and during episodes of terms-of-trade decline. We complement this analysis with loan-level data from a credit register, which allows us to identify the effect of a commodity price shock on the supply of credit, controlling for unobserved factors that could drive borrowers’ credit demand. Results show that banks with relatively lower deposits and poor asset quality transmit the changes in commodity prices to lending more aggressively.
- Blogs: GlobalDev
A Vision and Action Plan for Financial Sector Development and Reforms in India (with Eswar Prasad), Brookings Institution Report, January 2018.
Work in Progress
Differential crowding out effects of government bonds and government loans (with David Jaume, Martin Tobal and Everardo Tellez)
U.S. Populist Rhetoric and Currency Returns (Ilias Filippou, Arie E. Gozluklu, My T. Nguyen, Mark P. Taylor), FMA 2020
Operational Risk Capital (Thomas Colon, Xing Huan, and Steven Ongena), FMA 2020
Arbitrage Capital of Global Banks (Alyssa Anderson, Wenxin Du, and Bernd Schlusche), SFS Cavalcade, May 2020
Search for Yield in Large International Corporate Bonds: Investor Behavior and Firm Responses (Charles W. Calomiris, Mauricio Larrain, Sergio L. Schmukler, Tomas Williams), 8th Annual West Coast Workshop in International Finance, Seattle 2019
Depositors Disciplining Banks: The Impact of Scandals (Mikael Homanen), 8th MoFiR Workshop on Banking, Chicago 2019
Exchange Rate Exposure: Firm Level Analysis on Multinational Firms (Lei Zhu and Dazhi Zheng), Western Economic Association International (WEAI), 2018
Rent-extracting Mergers (Alex Xi He and Daniel le Maire), Graduate Student Dissertation Workshop, WEAI, 2018